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Jamie Dupree

West Virginia Goes For Clinton

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Jamie Dupree
@ May 12, 2008 12:00 AM
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It's not that I want to call this primary before the voting even starts on Tuesday, but let's face it, a win by Barack Obama in the Mountaineer State is going to be a big shocker.

If we go back to one of my very first blogs on this 2008 campaign, the schedules of the candidates often do tell the story.

And the story here is that Barack Obama has not even been to West Virginia since the results came in from Indiana and North Carolina last week, even though this is the only state to vote on May 13.

Instead, Obama has spent several days out in Oregon, which votes next week, a state where he is favored.

Today, Obama will drop into the state capital of Charleston for one speech and then he's off to Kentucky, which votes along with Oregon next week.

Clinton meanwhile, has been in West Virginia several times over the past week and has four more events slated for today, wrapping up with a rally that includes West Virginia's Governor, who is a Hillary backer.

What do the polls show? Well, when I saw this one, I rubbed my eyes for a minute, because you usually don't see polls like this.

American Research Group had a poll out the other day, which in West Virginia gave Hillary Clinton a 43-point advantage over Barack Obama.

That is not a typo. Forty three points. 43.

The real "nugget" for me in this poll was the following finding:

"13% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 45% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary," according to the ARG website.

I will let you figure out why that might be true.

Later today, Obama stops in Louisville, Kentucky, and it won't surprise me if this turns out to be his only visit to that state.

The last statewide poll in Kentucky in this race found Clinton leading by 34 points. (That isn't a typo either.)

The ironic part about those two states is that under the Democratic rules, when you win by that much, you can actually start picking up chunks of delegates on the other person.

But since West Virginia only offers 28 delegates, it won't make that much of a difference at this point.

So, one might expect that Hillary Clinton will be proclaiming victory from Charleston, WV on Tuesday night and saying that she'll go on to Kentucky and Oregon. We'll see.



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