Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: Chase Brown among players who prove that patience pays off

Most fantasy players are anything but a lesson in patience. We move effortlessly from elation to despair with little middle ground. We have high expectations and when they aren’t met immediately we go to the darkest of places.

Sometimes, the best I can do is try not to think about Player X who is letting you down week after week.

So, what happens when a player or team we’ve all but given up on starts producing? Can we trust it? Can we let it be a lesson in patience? Or are we doomed to be slaves to the emotional roller coaster that is fantasy football?

Here, we’ll check in on some big names that had us pushing the panic button in September to see whether we believe they can be relied upon going forward.

Caleb Williams, QB, and D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears

Let me start with Swift, who was drafted to be a fantasy starter by many a Zero or Hero RB strategist. That looked like an egregious mistake through the first three weeks of the season. Since then, however, Swift is fantasy's RB2 with at least 19 half-PPR fantasy points per game in Weeks 4-6.

Those coincided with some of the best fantasy matchups for running backs (Rams, Panthers, Jaguars) as well as with the improved play of Williams. Williams was drafted as a backup QB with future potential and that potential has been met; Williams has been fantasy’s QB8 over the last three weeks. He was easy to be patient with as he experienced the growing pains of the NFL (two touchdowns, four interceptions in the first three games, three fumbles this season). In the past two weeks, however, he made his mark as a fantasy must-start (six TDs, one pick).

The Bears are on bye in Week 7 but managers of both players are eager for their Week 8 matchup with Washington. I will note that Chicago’s receivers, including TE Cole Kmet, will likely remain up-and-down fantasy performers. Still, given the number of injuries we’re dealing with this season, DJ Moore, Kmet and Keenan Allen are in must-start territory going forward.

Bijan Robinson, RB, and Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Robinson has finally produced a fantasy line that’s in accordance with where you drafted him (25.5 half-PPR points in Week 6). But he hasn’t been awful, managing double-digit production in four games so far and narrowly missing that mark in Weeks 4-5. With the Seahawks, Bucs, and Cowboys up next — all above-average fantasy matchups for RBs — I think you’re safe expecting 15-20 fantasy points out of your first-round pick for the foreseeable future.

Robinson isn’t doing it alone, though, as the entire Falcons offense has improved over the last few weeks, ranking 11th in points per game and points per play. London is averaging eight catches for almost 100 yards per game over the last three games, and his four receiving touchdowns have helped him achieve WR5 status for fantasy. After a rough Week 1 vs. the Steelers, London has been rock-solid.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders

McLaurin has long been a lesson in patience, and since we were able to draft him in the middle rounds this year, it hasn’t been too hard to abide his slow start. While at times it was frustrating to see Jayden Daniels excelling from the start and McLaurin earning us 4-8 fantasy points in the first two weeks of the season, all has been forgiven now.

McLaurin has quickly become one of the best draft values, finishing Week 6 as fantasy’s WR5 and moving up to WR14 on the season (half-PPR scoring). He’s on his way to a fifth consecutive 1,000+ yard season and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him finish with his career-best in fantasy points per game.

Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Brown was another trendy Zero RB target this summer, and one whom fantasy managers will be quick to boast about drafting. Scoring at least once in each of the last three Bengals games, Brown has been the ninth-best fantasy running back in that span. The Bengals may have sputtered to start the season, but they’re humming along now. Patience has paid off as Brown has become a player to rely on during these difficult bye weeks.

Looking ahead, Brown will see two more challenging matchups with the Browns and Eagles before getting another choice matchup with the Raiders in Week 9. That’s only half of the equation, though. Brown has out-touched Zach Moss in each of the last two games, with only one fewer target in Week 4. That means opportunity is increasingly on his side. We’re only losing Dallas and Chicago to byes this week, but Brown might still have more upside than, say, James Cook (vs. Tennessee), a 49ers back (vs. KC) or Aaron Jones (vs. Detroit).

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens

Andrews finally had the game his fantasy managers were waiting for … but did you even start him? This weekend marked just his third acceptable game (given how bad the position is, I’m saying seven half-PPR points is OK) of the season and it was by far his best (3/65/1).

I do think there’s a place for patience in fantasy football, but I’m not buying into Andrews being an elite fantasy TE for the rest of the season. Maybe you’ve put together a roster that can withstand his zeros (it’s happened twice so far), but I’m more comfortable starting Isaiah Likely or whatever other streaming option is lying around on waivers.

Maybe you picked up Kmet after Week 5; I’m starting him over Andrews for sure.

Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions

Speaking of being patient with tight ends, LaPorta was probably the first TE drafted in your league in the second or maybe third round. So, yes, it was nice to see him finally score in Week 6. And also, yes, it was a great catch-and-run trick play. But also, it was one catch on one target against a defense that has underperformed to the extreme.

It’s not a matter of patience with LaPorta, it’s fear of missing the explosive stat line that he’s still very capable of producing. You must keep starting him and I’m hoping along with you that his involvement in the Lions’ potent offense continues to increase. But it might not be there this week as the Vikings have allowed opponents the third-fewest points per game in the league.

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos

Everyone loves stashing a rookie QB at the beginning of the season, and if your choice was Nix, you probably had a hard time looking yourself in the mirror the first two weeks of the season (four interceptions, zero passing touchdowns by Nix). He showed signs of life against a Bucs defense that turned out not to be as stout as people assumed, rushing in his second score of the season and managing to protect the football. But he’s really turned things around in the last two games, a span in which he’s accounted for five touchdowns and one interception plus over 200 passing yards and 35 rushing yards per game.

He’s QB7 over the two-game sample for fantasy. Importantly, Week 6’s performance came against the Chargers, who have been the stingiest defense in the league so far (average 13.2 PPG allowed). If you’ve been limping along with Dak Prescott or Justin Herbert, it might be time to consider a dramatic move to Nix.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Downs is something of a fantasy darling, so even though he started the season healing an ankle injury, he was drafted by most 12-team leagues. He started slowly in Week 3, but since then has been a fantasy workhorse, managing fantasy finishes of WR8, WR26 and WR16. Those were good enough to make him fantasy’s WR11 over the last three games with an average of 10 targets per game.

The issue is that those games all featured pass-happy Joe Flacco at QB and Anthony Richardson is due back for Week 7’s meeting with Miami. Though Miami’s offense has struggled mightily since losing Tua Tagovailoa, the defense has held opposing wide receivers to the second-fewest fantasy points per game (they allow the fewest to QB and are league-average against RB).

I understand if you don’t have better options, but Downs is not a player I’m eager to trust in Week 7 despite his recent successes.