As the 2024-25 NBA season is approaching, some players and coaches will slowly transition from their shared kumbaya phase of peace and eternal love to frustration, anger and deep resentment.
When losses begin to stack up and expectations fall flat, some organizations might consider making a change, and as history has shown us, change usually starts at head coach, as opposed to pivoting off star players.
There will unquestionably be teams that enter this season with a certain expectation level. Only 16 of 30 teams make the playoffs every year, and given that the league doesn't currently have 14 teams that are rebuilding, odds are good that we could be looking at some hot seats.
Now, before we get into those coaches who might find themselves in a tough spot, a crucial preface:
It's very difficult for even the best beat writer or analyst to know what goes on behind closed doors. NBA locker rooms are sacred places, and rarely do fans or pundits ever get the full picture of the internal dynamics between a head coach and his team.
As such, the following names will exclusively be listed via a perspective of potentially failed expectations.
(Coaches who are entering their first year with a new team, or their first year in general, are exempt. So while the Phoenix Suns could fail to live up to expectations, Mike Budenholzer is, by all accounts, safe. For now.)
Doc Rivers, Milwaukee Bucks
The midseason hire was always an odd one. The Bucks got actively worse last season, going from 30-13 under Adrian Griffin to 17-19 under Rivers.
MarJon Beauchamp, one of the few young players currently on the roster and a potentially crucial element for the upcoming season, played 15.7 minutes over his first 34 games. After Rivers arrived, he saw game action in just 14 games, playing 5.3 minutes on average.
For an old team in dire need of developing youth to take some of the burden off Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton, it seems counterproductive to actively keep said youth off the floor.
Now, in fairness, Rivers will have a full training camp with this team, and the Bucks did nail their minimum signings this summer, picking up Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and Delon Wright. They might be right back on track to win 55 games.
However, Rivers isn't known for installing creative offenses, meaning there is a scenario wherein the Bucks could stagnate. This begs the question: Where do they go from there?
Will they prefer to save face, and not fire a coach in the middle of the season for the second year in a row? Or, will they realize they have a potential top-10 player of all time on their roster, in his prime no less, and do what's best for him?
Willie Green, New Orleans Pelicans
Let's just make something abundantly clear. Green has improved every year he's been an active head coach, and nothing suggests his seat is warming up.
That said, if the Pelicans run into a scenario where Zion Williamson is healthy, but the team can't seem to gain traction in the win column, then what?
The organization has devoted itself to Williamson by attempting to mold a rotation around his skill set, even strengthening the point guard position by adding the eternally underrated Dejounte Murray, which should allow Williamson to pick and choose when he enters creator mode with the ball in his hands.
Yes, the team never really did figure out what to do with Brandon Ingram, who has morphed into a reluctant 3-point shooter for reasons that are unclear. And no, that shouldn't land on the feet of Green, whose job is to do the best he can with the players he's been given.
Logic dictates the Pelicans will be fine, as long as Williamson is healthy. But on the off chance they're not, Green could become the brutal, and unfair, sacrifice in their quest of a higher level.
Billy Donovan, Chicago Bulls
Similar to Green, no head coach should answer for the actions of a front office. This remains true in Chicago. But the Bulls have a nasty record of firing coaches on a whim, including firing Scott Skiles on Christmas Eve 2007 after a 9-16 start.
Donovan has lasted longer than most expected, particularly when you consider Chicago's lack of results and its seemingly everlasting presence in the play-in tournament.
(Two more appearances in the play-in by the Bulls should lead to the league offering them at least a five-year jersey patch promotional agreement, advertising the event throughout the season. At that point, the Bulls would have earned it.)
Donovan has also ingrained himself deep into the organization as his son, William, is the head coach of the G League's Windy City Bulls. Relieving Donovan of his duties likely means a ripple effect.
But after five seasons on the job, with just one playoff win and a winning percentage of 49.1%, it's not like it'd be a tough sell to the fan base if team president Artūras Karnišovas decided to pivot off Donovan if the Bulls start slowly.
Despite losing DeMar DeRozan this summer, the organization still views itself as being competitively relevant. It's clearly not, but through that perspective, firing Donovan by the time they're 10-12 games under .500 wouldn't be illogical to them. Perhaps they would be able to hire Doc Rivers. It'd make no sense, but that's basically how the Bulls like to operate these days.
Mike Malone, Denver Nuggets
All right, this is a curveball and not a great one. Malone helped the Nuggets win the 2023 championship, and by all accounts he's got a great relationship with the NBA's best player, Nikola Jokić.
He should be safe. Full stop.
But reportedly, there's been growing tension between Malone and the front office, meaning it's not a wild stretch to suggest the franchise could be looking for an excuse to end the relationship.
Malone did sign a lucrative contract extension less than a year ago, which won't be easy to swallow for Nuggets ownership. That said, there's likely language in his deal that offsets future earnings against what the Nuggets owe him, which is custom in coaching contracts. It'd take Malone a New York minute to find a new job, and the Nuggets are likely aware of that.
It's difficult to see the path where such a decision could be justified however. Malone wasn't responsible for losing Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in back-to-back offseasons, so firing him would more than likely turn the flame of Nuggets fans toward the front office — and fairly so.
Honorable mention
Quin Snyder, Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks owe their 2025 first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs, unprotected no less, meaning there is zero reason to lose games this season. The Hawks will be trying to win every game imaginable, and should they find themselves near the bottom of the Eastern Conference by the new year, it wouldn't be outrageous for them to seek an alternate coaching path.
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